If all the freehold land on Magnetic Island were to be developed to its maximum possible limit, according to the provisions of Townsville City Council's Draft City Plan, the Island's population could reach 23,000.

This astonishing figure was revealed by a Townsville City Council source this week and although the comment was qualified in that it was considered neither likely or probable, if Council were to allow all development approvals to go ahead unchecked, this figure was possible.

TCC planning staff say however that they are presently investigating infrastructure to a level of between 5,000 and 6,000. This is a figure commonly used as the likely population cap for the Island and one which TCC has apparently been committed to from some years ago, according to a Statement of Proposals - as part of an over arching principles document from the 1990s. A figure dependent, we understand, on the expected capacity of the now-operational tertiary treatment plant at Cockle Bay.

The 23,000 figure more importantly suggests just how much hangs on the impact of the new town plan and is especially interesting to residents presently putting together submissions in response to the Draft Plan which are due by the cut-off date of October 31.

To get an idea of just what might be possible Magnetic Times calculated, bay by bay, all the "Precinct" descriptions - which include terminology such as: "Park, Traditional, Neighbourhood" and "Mixed Residential" and "Tourist Core" to estimate the population limits for the bays where possible. To do this we measured the size of each precinct according to the Draft plan and multiplied the total areas by the Persons Per Hectare (PPH) limit set for each. Unfortunately it was impossible to calculate the potentially high density areas designated as "Neighbourhood" and "Local Core" precincts due to their mixed commercial and accommodation uses. We therefore excluded the areas which include the soon-to-be redeveloped Picnic Bay Hotel (as Banyans Resort); the proposed Dunoon resort; a sizeable block of Sooning Street (from Yates St to the Nelly Bay Supermarket) and more near the Nelly Bay Store; the Arcadia shopping area off Bright Avenue and the tourist strip at Horseshoe Bay's Pacific Drive. Without these major additional areas, however, a possible population of 14,130 emerges. This figure is clearly a guesstimate and arrived at by erring conservatively on the total land area covered by each precinct. The proposed Juniper's Resort at Radical Bay has also been excluded as the new Draft Plan appeared to be incorrect showing the former Radical leasehold land, which has now expired and reverted to Unallocated State Land, (USL) as still remaining in a "Mixed Residential" precinct.

Bay by bay (with the above exclusions) the estimate for Picnic Bay is 1,932; Nelly Bay 5,019; Arcadia 2,700 and Horseshoe Bay 4,478.

For those who believed that a population cap of 5,500 was likely it is important to note that, under the present Development Control Plan 6 (DCP6), TCC made its own predictions for future growth based on data likely obtained as far back as 1990. Predictions then for Picnic Bay were 1000; Nelly Bay 5,300; Arcadia 1,400; Horseshoe Bay 4,200 with a balance of 325 and a total of 12,225. Of considerable importance is a note attached to that table stating: "Anticipated population is based upon 70% of the maximum capacity". At that rate the maximum capacity would then have reached 17,464.

Magnetic Island's present residential population is thought to be approximately 2,500.